A space rock the size of a ten-story building could collide with the Moon in 2032. According to the latest data from NASA, the probability of such an event occurring for asteroid 2024 YR4 has increased.
NASA has reported that the chances of this asteroid colliding with the Moon are now estimated at 4.3%. This is a slight increase compared to the previous 3.8%. Although the risk remains relatively small, new data from the powerful James Webb Space Telescope has allowed scientists to refine the trajectory of the celestial body.
Potentially hazardous asteroid
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has already caused a wave of concern in early 2025. Initial calculations indicated a potential threat of collision with Earth on December 22, 2032. Initially, the risk was estimated at 1%, then it rose sharply to almost 3%, but fortunately, further observations completely ruled out this scenario. There is no threat to our planet.
However, the asteroid’s orbit could still cross the Moon’s path. This possibility is what attracts the attention of scientists. The ATLAS asteroid warning system in Chile first detected 2024 YR4 in December 2024, when it was about 830,000 kilometers from Earth. Shortly after its discovery, NASA classified it as a “potentially hazardous object” due to initial uncertainties in its trajectory.
Increased risk for the Moon
By mid-April 2025, the asteroid had moved so far away that ground-based telescopes could no longer see it. However, James Webb came to the rescue. Its unique infrared instruments allowed observations to continue for another month after ground-based observatories lost sight of the object.
A group of researchers from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, led by astronomer Andy Rivkin, used the James Webb’s near-infrared camera to study 2024 YR4.
These observations, completed in May before the asteroid disappeared behind the Sun, proved to be crucial. They made it possible to significantly refine the forecast of the asteroid’s position on the most dangerous day, December 22, 2032, by 20%, which led to a slight adjustment in the probability of a lunar impact.
The space telescope also helped to determine the size of the asteroid: its diameter ranges from 53 to 67 meters. It is a relatively small object. Even if it hits the Moon directly, it will only create a new crater and will not affect the Earth’s orbit in any way.
Why is this interesting, even if a hit is unlikely?
If a collision does occur, and it happens on the side of the Moon visible from Earth, it will provide scientists with an unprecedented opportunity to observe the formation of an impact crater in real time. Such data is highly valuable for planetary science.
The asteroid will also provide an opportunity to practice planetary defense. The discovery and tracking of 2024 YR4, despite posing no threat to Earth, served as an important practical test for systems designed to detect and monitor potentially hazardous objects. This experience will help improve strategies for protecting our planet in the future.
NASA is already preparing for the asteroid’s next visit when it approaches Earth again in 2028. New observations are planned both from Earth and with the James Webb Space Telescope. They will help determine the exact shape and composition of the asteroid, which is important for understanding its behavior.
For now, 2024 YR4 continues its journey through space. Although the chances of it colliding with the Moon are low, the scientific community will be closely monitoring this celestial traveler, ready to take advantage of this unique opportunity to learn more about our Solar System.
Earlier, we reported that the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth had increased by 1.5 times.According to NASA
