The probability of collision of potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 with Earth has increased by one and a half times compared to previous estimates. This is evidenced by updates to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Small Bodies Database.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in late 2024. It became the first celestial body in many years to have a probability of falling to Earth other than zero. The collision could happen on December 22, 2032.
According to NASA’s prediction, based on the assumption that the asteroid has a rocky composition and its diameter is 55 meters, it will explode in the Earth’s atmosphere with the release of energy equivalent to the explosion of 8 megatons of TNT. By its consequences such an event will be comparable to the fall of the Tunguska meteorite in 1908, which devastated about 2000 km2 of taiga. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador will be at risk.
At the time 2024 YR4 was discovered, the probability of such an unfavorable outcome was estimated at 1.2%. Since then, it has been gradually increasing. If on February 15, the probability of collision in 2032 was estimated at 2.2%, then according to NASA data by February 19, it increased almost one and a half times to 3.1%.
However, that doesn’t mean we should panic. In fact, an increase in the probability of the 2024 YR4 drop is generally the norm. This is because the uncertainty about the area that the asteroid will pass through in December 2032 is gradually decreasing as new information becomes available. But since the Earth is still initially in it, it will occupy an increasing portion of the reduced zone and the estimate of the probability of falling will increase accordingly. This is usually a temporary phenomenon. Most likely, during further observations, the Earth will move away from the region of uncertainty, after which the probability of a collision will decrease to zero.
At the same time, we should consider the fact that 2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth. Astronomers predict that by mid-March the asteroid will cease to be visible to ground-based telescopes. However, the James Webb Space Telescope is planning to take part in its observations. However, it is far from certain that the data collected by it will be enough to finally calculate the trajectory of the asteroid. It is possible that the final answer as to whether or not 2024 YR poses a threat to Earth will not be answered until 2028, when it comes close to our planet again.
In any case, it should not be forgotten that humanity already has technology at its disposal that can deflect an object of similar size. This can be accomplished using an impactor device similar to the DART probe. And even in the case of failure, Earthlings will have a significant amount of time left to evacuate the population from the area that could be affected by the consequences of the 2024 YR4 crash.
