According to NASA, there is a 2.1% chance that Earth will collide with asteroid 2024 UR4 in December 2032. Its fall would be comparable to the explosion of a hydrogen bomb. But where could an asteroid fall?
Asteroid 2024 UR4 was discovered in late 2024. It has become the first fairly large object in many years that has a different chance than zero of colliding with the Earth. This event could happen on December 22, 2032.
The destructive potential of 2024 YR4 depends on its composition, velocity, and mass. But since their exact values are still unknown, this makes it much more difficult to assess the consequences. NASA calculations based on the assumption that 2024 UR4 has a rocky composition and is 55 meters in diameter suggest it will explode on re-entry. This would release about 8 megatons of energy in TNT equivalent, comparable to the 1908 fall of the Tunguska meteorite. Such an explosion is quite capable of devastating a major city, and its impact will be felt within a radius of 50 kilometers from the blast site.
As for the location of the possible fall of 2024 UR4, astronomers need to know the exact trajectory of the asteroid to determine it. However, the available observational data are still insufficient for this. At the same time, they were able to determine the risk corridor — the line in which it is theoretically possible to fall an asteroid. It begins in the Pacific Ocean and continues through northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Central Africa, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Peninsula. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador will be at risk.
Here are 70 clones of #asteroid 2024 YR4 that do hit Earth, highlighting the impact risk corridor. There are some big cities along that line: #Bogota, #Lagos, #Mumbai. pic.twitter.com/FjgJ9gVsbB
— Tony Dunn (@tony873004) February 10, 2025
But once again we emphasize that the probability of such an unfavorable outcome is very small. Most likely, 2024 YR4 will safely pass apart from the Earth. But more observations are needed to get an accurate answer. They are complicated by the fact that the asteroid is now moving away from Earth and will soon cease to be observed in telescopes. NASA plans to use the James Webb Telescope to study 2024 YR4 in spring: its data should help assess its danger. But we cannot rule out that we will only know the final answer in 2028, when 2024 YR4 flies close to Earth again.
And even if it turns out that 2024 YR4 does collide with Earth, there are ways at humanity’s disposal to deflect it. An impactor vehicle similar to the DART probe, which successfully changed the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos in 2022, could be used for this purpose.
