Like the Tunguska meteorite: A large asteroid could collide with Earth in 2032

Astronomers have reported the discovery of a rather large asteroid that could collide with Earth in 2023. At the moment, the probability of this event is estimated at 1.2%.

An asteroid approaching Earth in an artist’s impression. Source: iStock/ Getty Images

Asteroid 2024 YR4 came into the field of view of the ATLAS asteroid impact early warning system, whose telescopes are located in Hawaii, Chile and South Africa on December 25, 2024. Calculations show that there is a 1.2% chance that this object will collide with Earth on December 22, 2032. Because of this, the International Astronomical Union assigned it a value of 3 on the Torino scale, which indicates the degree of danger that celestial bodies pose to our planet. It is currently the only asteroid with an index above zero.

It should be noted at once that due to the short duration of observations of 2024 YR4, its trajectory is determined with insufficient precision. In this way, the available figures for the probability of a fall will change — and most likely in a smaller direction. Recall that at one time the asteroid Apophis received 4 points on the Torino scale (the probability of its fall to Earth was estimated at 2.7%). But subsequent observations have shown that it does not threaten our planet in the foreseeable future.

The orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4. Source: NASA/JPL

Also, astronomers do not know the exact size of 2024 YR4 yet. Current estimates vary from 40 to 100 meters. NASA calls the figure of 55 meters. The fall of an object of this size would release energy equivalent to 8 megatons in TNT equivalent and would be comparable to the effects of the Tunguska meteorite explosion. It caused considerable destruction — but fortunately in a virtually unpopulated region.

As observations continue, astronomers will be able to more accurately calculate the trajectory of 2024 YR4 and assess its threat level. If the asteroid does fall to Earth, the time available is enough to prepare for it and organize evacuation of the population or even send a mission like DART to it, which would change the trajectory of the small body. But given the lack of sufficient data, it is too early to tell.

According to earthsky.org

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