Space tends to instill fear in ordinary individuals. They perceive it as being filled with phenomena beyond scientific comprehension, potentially threatening their safety. However, in fact, space has been extensively researched by scientists and remains, in many respects, highly predictable. Among its most thoroughly examined regions is the Solar System, our place of residence.
The universe we fear
When inquiring about the emotions that space elicits, many individuals frequently express fear. We associate stars with the night, and as diurnal beings, we have evolved accordingly; historically, predators primarily hunted humans during nocturnal hours. This historical context explains why darkness inherently induces fear in us.
Furthermore, space is not only dark but also expansive and entirely unlike any phenomena known on Earth. Consequently, individuals unfamiliar with astronomy might assume that even scientists are unable to forecast potential dangers from its depths, as their knowledge of it remains limited.
To a certain extent, that is correct. Our observations are limited to a minute portion of the universe, and we cannot definitively exclude the existence of potential threats beyond our current knowledge. Furthermore, it is already established that space contains numerous hazards similar to those found on Earth; however, these are predominantly known threats, and we do not harbor a profound fear of them.
The most thoroughly studied process in the world
Indeed, what causes apprehension among individuals is the notion that space is inherently beyond the capacity of our understanding. However, this is not truly the case. Space exemplifies comprehensibility, as it can only be engaged with indirectly — through conscious observation and enumeration.
This is precisely how individuals historically established the length of a year: by documenting the time and location of sunrise until the cycle recommenced. Currently, scientists are able to measure this duration to within millionths and even billionths of a second. The seasonal changes on Earth are attributable to a cosmic phenomenon — the Earth’s orbit around the Sun.
The Earth’s rotation around its axis has been measured with exceptional precision. Researchers are continuously monitoring how its period is gradually altering — by milliseconds. Furthermore, this process can be forecasted for millions of years into both the past and future.
Source: earthsky.org
The Earth’s axis is inclined relative to the perpendicular to the plane of its orbit. The Moon orbits the Earth; its orbit is also inclined at a certain angle and undergoes precession. All of these parameters have been accurately calculated over time, and it is upon these calculations that scientists rely to predict eclipses with high precision.
The mutual rotation within this complex three-body system (comprising the Sun, Earth, and Moon) is articulated with such meticulous accuracy that numerous terrestrial sciences — such as climatology, biology, and history — may only envy it.
The motion of the planets
The same is true for all eight major planets. Their orbits have been calculated for many centuries, and even the stability of these orbits over time is known. If there is one system we can be certain will remain exactly as we know it even a million years from now, it is the Solar System.
Furthermore, spacecraft have conducted high-resolution explorations of Mercury’s surface, allowing us to confidently assert that, for instance, there is no evil alien base hiding there. Our understanding of Venus is somewhat more limited due to its surface being obscured by a dense cloud cover; however, we still possess a reasonably accurate depiction of its terrain.
However, scientists have not only studied the surface of Mars in detail; spacecraft are constantly monitoring it at a resolution of less than one meter per pixel, which is why our knowledge of this planet is nearly as comprehensive as that of Earth.
Scientists have extensively studied Jupiter and Saturn from various perspectives; however, close-up photographs of Uranus and Neptune have been taken only once. Meanwhile, telescopes continuously observe these planets, making it inaccurate to claim that we possess no knowledge about them.
Similarly, the moons of all the planets have been studied extensively. At the very least, their orbits have been calculated for millions of years into the future, and we are aware of several potential future catastrophes, such as the destruction of Phobos by Mars’s gravitational influence, that will occur millions of years from now.
Certainly, one might inquire whether it is excessively presumptuous to assume that no imperceptible process or random event will influence the motion of a satellite or planet. However, this is precisely where space distinguishes itself positively from the world to which we are accustomed. It is essentially void. Although this is often perceived as somewhat disheartening, it simultaneously implies that there is virtually no medium capable of autonomous motion, thereby significantly reducing the occurrence of random events. The behavior of celestial objects closely aligns with the mathematical abstraction described by the equations utilized by scientists.
Small bodies within the Solar System
It is precisely the fact that the vast majority of possible interactions between celestial bodies within the Solar System can be delineated by Kepler’s and Newton’s laws that permits scientists to forecast the trajectory of any observed object, provided it has been monitored for an adequate duration.
Indeed, this is a highly advantageous situation. As the enumeration of all known comets and asteroids amounts to hundreds of thousands, continuous monitoring is unfeasible. However, it remains possible to calculate their trajectories many years in advance, a task routinely undertaken by scientists upon the discovery of new celestial rocks or ice in space.
Currently, among the multitude of asteroids and comets, none possess trajectories that could result in a collision with our planet within the upcoming decades. Therefore, the presence of thousands of rocks in space, each exceeding one kilometer in diameter, does not pose an immediate threat, despite the fact that such collisions would release energy surpassing that of our entire nuclear arsenals.
Since the vast majority of these objects orbit between Mars and Jupiter and have no intention of altering their orbits in the coming centuries, knowledge about space remains more reassuring than alarming in this context. Indeed, there are two genuinely concerning issues related to the incomplete scientific understanding of the Solar System.
The initial group comprises comets originating from the Oort Cloud. Our observational limitations preclude us from clearly perceiving the outer regions of the Solar System, thereby hindering our ability to predict in advance when an icy object alters its trajectory and approaches Earth.
This occurrence transpires multiple times annually, and it is, in fact, a positive development: none of these comets have approached Earth within a hazardous proximity in recent decades. This indicates that collisions with such bodies are exceedingly infrequent. Moreover, through our observations, we possess an understanding of their sizes and recognize that a collision with one of them would result in a catastrophe but would not annihilate all life on Earth.
There is cause for concern in this context; however, statistically, over the span of a lifetime, the probability of death resulting from a bomb dropped on one’s residence surpasses that of an asteroid, even if one does not reside in a country susceptible to authoritarianism and the use of violence to assert power.
The second threat arises from asteroids whose trajectories are situated within Mars’s orbit. Scientists possess substantial knowledge regarding these objects. It is probable that no unknown celestial bodies larger than a kilometer in radius — or even larger than a few hundred meters — remain undiscovered, and the orbits of the known objects have been determined with commendable precision.
Nonetheless, numerous small asteroids — potentially numbering in the hundreds or thousands — remain insufficiently examined by scientists. In contrast to a comet originating from the Oort Cloud, which is typically identified well beyond Jupiter’s orbit with several months’ notice prior to potential impact, such an asteroid may not be detected until merely a few days before contact. Furthermore, the impact of such an asteroid could possess sufficient force to obliterate an entire city.
It is indeed important to recognize that there exists a potential source of concern: each day, we are confronted with the possibility that an unidentified object could descend from the sky. Nevertheless, the probability that this “something” will specifically impact an individual is exceedingly low. In fact, small celestial bodies regularly enter Earth’s atmosphere; however, the vast majority of these occurrences go unnoticed as they do not cause any harm.
Furthermore, scientists are actively engaged in the effort to minimize the quantity of unidentified near-Earth asteroids to nil, and it is highly probable that this objective will be accomplished within the forthcoming years.
For millennia, humanity has been observing the darkness through which the celestial bodies of the Solar System traverse. These endeavors have proven successful. It is among the most thoroughly researched regions of our environment concerning concealed hazards.
