Arctic sea ice is melting at an unprecedented rate of more than 12% in each decade. According to a study published in Nature Communications, the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could come in as little as 3-6 years, that is, between 2027 and 2030.
Consequences of melting ice
Climatologists note that the loss of sea ice significantly affects ecosystems and climatic processes. Arctic sea ice, which previously served as the planet’s “refrigerator”. But now the northern region is rapidly turning into a “radiator”, because dark waters absorb more solar heat. Consequently, the Arctic is heating up 4 times faster than the rest of the world.
As of 2023, the average sea ice extent has decreased from 6.85 million km² (1979-1992) to 4.28 million km². If the ice area drops below 1 million km², the region will officially be considered “ice-free”.
Predictions of researchers
The study utilized 11 climate models and ran 366 simulations. The most pessimistic scenarios envision a series of extremely warm seasons, leading to ice melt as early as 2027. However, even with moderate conditions, scientists predict the Arctic completely ice-free in the 2030s.
“This will be a landmark moment demonstrating a fundamental change in the Arctic Ocean due to greenhouse gas emissions,” notes climatologist Alexandra Jahn of the University of Colorado.
Sea ice performs an important function by reflecting solar energy back into space (the albedo effect). Its disappearance causes serious consequences: disturbance of marine habitats, changes in ocean currents and rising global temperatures.
Hopes for emission reductions
Despite the pessimistic outlook, researchers see hope in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Reducing anthropogenic emissions can slow ice melt and mitigate its impact on climate systems.
“Every reduction in emissions will help preserve sea ice,” notes Jahn.
The first day without ice in the Arctic will be a challenge for humanity, signaling the need for decisive action to preserve the planet.
Provided by livescience.com
