More than 50 years ago, the Soviet probe Cosmos-482 was supposed to set out to explore Venus. But after being launched into Earth orbit, it was never able to leave due to a technical failure. Finally in May, its debris may make an uncontrolled fall to a planet whose gravity they never overcame. Experts note that parts of the vehicle, designed for the extreme conditions of Venus, may survive passage through the atmosphere, and fall to the surface, rather than create a danger.
Mark Langbroek, a satellite tracking specialist from the Netherlands, predicts reentry will take place around May 10. “This descent module was designed for temperatures of 500°C and pressures 90 times higher than Earth’s. Therefore, its fragments may remain intact,” the expert explains. He compares the risk to people to a meteorite fall: insignificant, but not zero.
Mission failure and its consequences
On March 31, 1972, a rocket carrying a vehicle to study Venus was launched from Baikonur. However, the probe’s engine failed, not gaining the necessary speed. Instead of an interplanetary flight, Cosmos-482 broke up into four parts. Two small fragments burned up in the atmosphere two days later, while the rest – the 500-kilogram descent module and engine – are still hovering in a high elliptical orbit (210 × 9800 km).
Floating fall date
The Sun’s activity, which heats and expands the upper atmosphere, makes it difficult to calculate the exact date of reentry. This increases drag for objects in low orbit, accelerating their fall. “If solar flares intensify, the probe could return a few days earlier,” Langbroek notes. The exact location of the crash is also impossible to predict: the debris will most likely fall into the ocean, but theoretically it could end up on land as well.
Risk for people
Although the “relic” vehicle weighs half a ton, most of its components will burn up in the atmosphere. According to experts, the probability of damage or casualties is negligible – about 1 in 10,000. However, this event is a reminder of the problem of space debris: thousands of uncontrolled objects remain in orbit, and their number is growing every year.
“Cosmos-482” was a Cold War artifact that turned into a dangerous “surprise” from the past. Its return is not only a scientific highlight, but also a reason to think about the future of space exploration and its impact on Earth.
Earlier we reported on how NASA’s “dead” satellite falls to Earth: the risk to humans has been calculated.
According to Gizmodo
