For many years, the scientific consensus was almost unanimous: in about 5 billion years, our galaxy, the Milky Way, will inevitably collide with its closest giant neighbor, Andromeda. This apocalyptic process was supposed to end with their final merger into a new giant galaxy, jokingly named Milkomeda. However, the latest research, based on the most accurate data from the Gaia and Hubble space telescopes, radically changes this picture of the future. It turns out that the chances of such a collision are significantly lower than previously thought.
The future in 10 billion years
An international team of astronomers from the University of Helsinki, Durham University, and other institutions conducted large-scale computer simulation. They took into account the latest data on the exact position, movements, and, most importantly, the masses of all the key galaxies in our Local Group: the Milky Way, Andromeda, the Triangulum Galaxy, and the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) – a satellite of our galaxy. Objective: to predict their fate over an incredibly long period of 10 billion years.
The simulation results came as a surprise. It turns out that the Large Magellanic Cloud, orbiting the Milky Way, plays a decisive and even “treacherous” role in the future of our galaxies. Its gravitational influence, especially due to the fact that its orbit is perpendicular to the line of potential convergence between the Milky Way and Andromeda, significantly hinders their future direct collision. Previous forecasts, which indicated a high probability of a merger, often failed to fully take this powerful factor into account.
50% probability
The main conclusion of the study: the probability of a direct collision between the Milky Way and Andromeda within the next 10 billion years is no more than 50%. This means that the scenario with Milkomeda’s birth became an equivalent alternative path of development. However, the model revealed another, much more likely scenario: the Milky Way will almost certainly merge with the Large Magellanic Cloud much sooner — within the next two billion years. Scientists might jokingly call the result of this merger the “Magellanic Galaxy.”
Uncertainty remains
Researchers emphasize that even with the most modern data, significant uncertainties remain. The exact current positions, velocities, and masses of galaxies, especially smaller ones, are difficult to measure with absolute precision. These uncertainties leave room for various scenarios.
The galactic drama continues, but the main “end of the world” scenario for our galaxy has changed thanks to the intervention of an unexpected gravitational “saboteur” — the Large Magellanic Cloud.
We previously reported on how Hubble completed its decade-long creation of a 417-megapixel panorama of the Andromeda galaxy.
According to LiveScience
