Potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 can collide not only with the Earth, but also with the Moon. This is according to the results of calculations performed by scientist David Rankin.
For many weeks, asteroid 2024 YR4 remains one of the “hottest” astronomical topics. And that’s not surprising. According to the latest estimates with a probability of 2.1% it could fall to Earth on December 22, 2032. According to the most likely scenario, the asteroid will explode in the atmosphere with the release of 8 megatons of energy in TNT equivalent. That’s 500 times the energy of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador will be at risk.
However, Earth is not the only celestial body that 2024 YR4 could collide with. There is also a possibility, albeit a very small one, that it could fall on the Moon.
This is the conclusion reached by engineer David Rankin, who is an employee of the Catalina Sky Survey. He estimated the probability of such an outcome at 0.3%. Since the Moon has no atmosphere, 2024 YR4 will reach the lunar surface unimpeded and form a crater up to 2 km in diameter. By the standards of the Moon, which has been subjected to countless asteroid and comet bombardments throughout its existence, that’s not much at all.
The potential collision of 2024 YR4 with the Moon will be clearly visible from Earth. It can cause material to be ejected that gains enough velocity to fly off into space. Some of the debris could then fall to Earth. According to astronomers, it will not pose any threat: most likely, all the fragments ejected during the collision will completely burn up in the atmosphere.
In any case, the probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with both the Moon and Earth is very low. To find out more about the asteroid, an international team of scientists has been authorized to make emergency use of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Its data will help refine the size and trajectory of the small body. JWST will conduct observations of 2024 YR4 in March and May 2025.
According to livescience.com
