2024 was the hottest year in the history of weather observations on our planet. However, judging by global average temperatures, 2026 could become the second hottest. A warm autumn has contributed particularly strongly to this trend.
The Second-Hottest Year
Global warming on Earth shows no sign of stopping. It is influenced by a large-scale rise of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño. According to phys.org, the Copernicus Climate Change Service reported in its latest bulletin that 2026 could become the second-hottest year on record.
The hottest year of the past couple of centuries was 2024, when global average temperatures broke records almost every month. This year, however, temperatures also appear likely to exceed preindustrial levels by 1.5°C. The average for the four-year period from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold.
A warm autumn has had a considerable influence on this year’s figures. According to Copernicus, October’s global average temperature was 1.75°C above preindustrial levels. This marks the third consecutive month in which temperatures have exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
El Niño
Why is everyone so focused on 1.5°C? Because agreements signed in 2015 set this as the maximum increase in global temperature by 2050. Our planet has already reached that level, suggesting that conditions will only worsen. If the temperature increase crosses the 2°C threshold, climate change will become catastrophic.
Of course, not everything in this situation depends on human activity. Climate scientists say that El Niño is adding to today’s global warming—a Pacific Ocean current that periodically grows to enormous proportions and further warms the air. It is an entirely natural phenomenon and receives considerable attention in the new Copernicus report.
In September, the United Nations stated that the long-term 1.5°C target would be exceeded within the next few years. Scientists believe it is essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. Doing so would limit the length of time temperatures remain above the 1.5°C threshold and bring them back below it as quickly as possible.
