Intense solar flares are powerful emissions of electromagnetic radiation from the surface of the Sun. The solar wind generated from these flares can reach the Earth’s atmosphere and ignite its atmosphere in the form of auroras. However, predicting them remains a complex task for scientists.

A team of researchers led by heliophysicist Emily Mason of Predictive Sciences Inc has discovered a type of solar activity that may precede flares, warning of their possibility. The findings, published in Astrophysical Journal Letters, were presented on January 15 at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society. This discovery has important implications for the protection of astronauts and spacecraft.
Solar flares pose a serious threat because they can disrupt satellite communications, GPS and power grids, as well as expose astronauts to dangerous radiation. A reliable early warning system would help mitigate the effects of space weather.
Using data from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, the researchers analyzed the flickering of coronal loops – arch-shaped structures in the Sun’s corona – before 50 intense flares. These loops are located in magnetically active regions where flares occur. It turned out that the brightness of the loops in the ultraviolet varied significantly in the hours before the large flares.
“We noticed chaotic flickering of ultraviolet light in active regions hours before the flares,” Mason explained. “These results will help to better understand the mechanisms of flares and improve our ability to predict space weather.”
The researchers believe that analyzing brightness variations in coronal loops can predict flares 2-6 hours in advance with 60-80% accuracy. This is more accurate than previous methods.
“The solar corona is a dynamic environment, and each flare is as unique as a snowflake. Instead of looking for clear trends, we focus on periods of chaotic behavior in coronal loop emission, which provides more stable results,” said Kara Kniezewski of the U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology.
Vadim Uritsky of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center highlighted the importance of creating a simple and proven indicator for operational use. The researchers also hypothesize that the stronger the flare, the earlier the flicker begins, although further analysis is needed to confirm this hypothesis.
Attempts to predict solar flares have been going on for decades. If these studies are confirmed, observing coronal loop flickers could be an effective warning tool to protect people and technology.
We previously reported on how once-in-a-century Sun-like stars generated giant explosions.
According to NASA