In 2032, asteroid 2024 YR4 may collide with the Moon. If this happens, debris from the event will fly toward Earth. They pose the greatest danger to satellites orbiting our planet.
Collision of 2024 YR4 with the Moon and debris
A team of scientists led by Paul Wiegert from the Department of Physics and Astronomy and the Institute for Earth and Space Exploration (IESX) at the University of Western Ontario claims that even if asteroid 2024 YR4 collides with the Moon rather than Earth in 2032, it could still cause significant damage to humanity.
This piece of space rock caused a lot of commotion in early 2025, as it was initially predicted that it could collide with Earth in 2032. However, scientists later said that the chances of this happening were basically zero, but there’s a 4% chance that it could hit the moon instead.
The diameter of 2024 YR4 ranges from 53 to 67 meters. If it collides with the Moon, it will cause an explosion equivalent to 6.5 kilotons of TNT and form a crater with a diameter of 1 km. And the material ejected as a result has a chance of colliding with Earth.
Threat to satellites
Scientists conducted 410 simulations of the collision between 2024 YR4 and the Moon and obtained a forecast of its consequences. According to them, everything depends greatly on the location of the impact. As a result, up to 10% of all debris could pose a threat to Earth.
And while the danger to people on the surface is relatively small, because the debris is too small and will mostly burn up in the atmosphere, satellites in orbit are not protected by anything. Even particles with a diameter of 0.1 mm, which will be very numerous, could pose a threat, so this event has the potential to cause enormous damage to communications and navigation.
The consequences could be even worse, because by 2032, the US and China intend to begin manned flights and exploration of the Moon, and everything near it will be particularly vulnerable. Eventually, the actual danger posed by 2024 YR4 will become clear in 2028, when it will fly past Earth again and its orbit can be recalculated.
According to phys.org
