Record temperature increase: 2024 was the hottest year in history

The average temperature of the Earth’s surface in 2024 was the highest in the history of observations. This is evidenced by the results of the analysis performed by scientists from NASA.

Map of Earth showing temperature anomalies in 2024. Source: NASA

Global temperatures in 2024 were 1.28 °C above the 20th century baseline (the period from 1951 to 1980), exceeding last year’s record high. The new anti-record comes after a 15-month unprecedented heat wave band (June 2023 through August 2024), during which time monthly temperature records were set. 

NASA scientists estimate that the Earth was about 1.47 °C warmer in 2024 than the average for the mid-19th century (1850 to 1900). For more than half of 2024, the average temperature was more than 1.5 °C above the baseline, and the annual average, given the mathematical uncertainty, may have exceeded this level for the first time.

“The Paris Agreement on climate change sets forth efforts to remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius over the long term. To put that in perspective, temperatures during the warm periods on Earth three million years ago — when sea levels were dozens of feet higher than today — were only around 3 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “We are halfway to Pliocene-level warmth in just 150 years.”

Scientists have concluded that the warming trend in recent decades is due to the absorption of heat from carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases. In 2022 and 2023, the Earth experienced record increases in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, according to a recent international analysis. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from pre-industrial levels of about 278 parts per million in the 18th century to about 420 parts per million today.

The temperature of individual years can be affected by natural climate variations such as El Niño and La Niña, which alternately warm and cool the tropical Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño that began in the autumn of 2023 helped push global temperatures above previous records.

Schmidt said that even despite the weakening El Niño, the heat wave burst that began in 2023 continued to exceed expectations into 2024. Researchers are working to identify contributing factors, including the possible climate impact of the January 2022 eruption of Tonga’s volcano and reduced pollution, which could change cloud cover and the way solar energy is reflected into space.

“Not every year is going to break records, but the long-term trend is clear,” Schmidt said. “We’re already seeing the impact in extreme rainfall, heat waves, and increased flood risk, which are going to keep getting worse as long as emissions continue.”

According to NASA

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