The Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom (GIUK) gap is a vital maritime bottleneck separating the North Atlantic from the Arctic Ocean. For centuries, it has played a crucial role in both international maritime trade and local industry, especially fishing, for the United Kingdom and Iceland.
However, the United Kingdom’s new strategy to develop a spaceport in the Shetland Islands could threaten fishing and shipping. Due to rocket launches, most of the North Atlantic will turn into a closed zone, where ships will be prohibited from entering during rocket launches and the elimination of possible consequences for hours and days for each launch. We are talking about a total period of 2-3 months a year when the SaxaVord spaceport can theoretically operate.
Restricted area
During rocket tests and launches, designated areas on Earth’s surface are temporarily closed for safety reasons. These zones include regions where an uncontrolled rocket could potentially crash and where debris from the rocket’s first stages is expected to fall. For SaxaVord, this is the area of the North Atlantic from the Shetland Islands and further northwest to the 200-mile zone of Iceland.
During the missile launch, this area must be clear of civilian vessels, including fishing boats and transport ships. The rocket launch, including preparations, can take several hours, but the zone will be closed in advance, and it will not be reopened immediately after the launch. If we add the velocity of ships, we are talking about changes in routes and fishing schedules for a day or more for a single rocket launch. SaxaVord recently reported that they plan to launch 30 rockets a year.
International commercial maritime importance
For international trade, the waters between the UK and Iceland serve as a key shipping route connecting Europe, North America, and the Arctic regions. It is a key passage for transatlantic shipping and an important link in global supply chains. Any disruption to this route would have a significant impact on the transport of goods, including oil, natural gas and consumer goods, leading to delays and higher shipping costs. In addition, with the increase in Arctic shipping volumes due to climate change and melting sea ice, the GIUK gap has gained even more strategic value by providing access to potential new shipping routes such as the Northern Sea Route.
Importance to the local fishing industry
For the UK and Iceland, the GIUK gap is not just a global trade route, it is essential to their thriving fishing industries. Both countries rely heavily on the rich fishing grounds of the North Atlantic. Iceland in particular has one of the most lucrative fishing sectors in the world, and the UK also benefits from these waters. Any blockage of the strait would disrupt fishing fleets’ access to these important resources, leading to economic losses and potentially affecting local food supplies.
Another threat to fisheries is the repeated dumping of used rocket stages and the risks posed by failed launches. This will result in tonnes of metal, plastic and toxic fuel entering the water. It is difficult to assess the possible consequences now, but the very fact of such an event could undermine confidence in the quality of fish and seafood if at least one of the food quality checks reveals anomalies related to toxic substances from the rockets.
Consequences of closing the GIUK gap
If the GIUK were to be closed, even temporarily, the impact would be immediate. For international shipping, the closure would force vessels to re-route, resulting in significant time and fuel costs, which could lead to supply chain disruptions. For the fishing industry, the closure would mean the termination or delay of access to vital fishing grounds, resulting in lost income for thousands of fishermen and supporting industries in both countries.
Furthermore, the forced rerouting of ships through the English Channel increases the risk of maritime disasters and collisions. Such incidents are more likely in areas with dense, heavily regulated traffic. The sudden introduction of new routes into existing control systems will inevitably heighten the likelihood of accidents over time.
Recently, the cargo ship Solong rammed the oil tanker Stena Immaculate in the North Sea, and the consequences of this disaster are still difficult to assess, but there is already evidence that some of the fuel carried by the tanker has been spilled into the sea.
Moreover, the wider economic impact of the dumping of fuel and stages could be severe, as the cost of goods and services will rise, especially for the UK, which imports a large amount of goods by sea. For Iceland, whose economy is heavily dependent on fishing, the impact would be even more severe, potentially threatening the livelihoods of thousands of people and damaging the national economy.
Conclusion
The GIUK gap is more than just a strategic waterway – it is a vital source of international trade and local industry in the UK and Iceland. Any disruption to this passage would have far-reaching consequences for commercial shipping, fisheries and national economies. Ensuring its security and open access is crucial to maintaining the stability and prosperity of both countries.
