Asteroid 2024 YR4, once thought to threaten Earth, may collide with the Moon. This is evidenced by observations from the James Webb Telescope (JWST).
2024 YR4 was discovered in late 2024. It attracted the attention of scientists due to the fact that it was the first celestial body for many years, which had a probability of falling to Earth different from zero. Calculations said the event could happen on December 22, 2032. At one point, the probability of a collision was estimated at 3.1%.
Subsequently, astronomers were able to prove that 2024 YR4 did not pose a threat to Earth. Nevertheless, they continued to study it. Observations made by the JWS telescope made it possible to clarify its size. It turns out that the diameter of 2024 YR4 is between 53 and 67 meters. In its thermal characteristics, it differs from larger asteroids. The 2024 YR4 is characterized by fast rotation and no dust on the surface — it is covered with rocks the size of a fist or larger.
But that’s not all. The results of the JWST observations not only allowed to refine the characteristics of the asteroid, but also increased the likelihood that in 2032 it may collide with the Moon rather than Earth. Recent estimates put it at 3.8%.
If a collision does occur, it will not pose a threat to our planet. The impact could result in the ejection of material that would gain enough velocity to fly off into space. But even if some debris reaches Earth, it will burn up completely in the atmosphere. As for the Moon, since it has no atmosphere, the asteroid will reach its surface unhindered and form a crater up to 2 km in diameter. The potential collision will be clearly visible from Earth through telescopes and even binoculars.
However, so far this is nothing more than a speculative prospect. In all likelihood, the asteroid will still pass the Moon. It is possible that we will get an accurate answer only in 2028, when 2024 YR4 will again approach the Earth and astronomers will be able to refine its orbit. Despite the low chances, many researchers are hopeful that the asteroid will still collide with the Moon. Such an event would provide unique data that could then be used in planetary defense projects for our planet.
According to Phys.org
