Imagine the moment when humanity first establishes a foothold not on the neighboring Moon, but on a small asteroid flying in the depths of space. And while they used to be considered primarily a danger to our planet, they are now increasingly perceived as a promising source of valuable resources. This is not just a fantastic idea – leading public and private aerospace companies are already preparing to make it a reality.
In this article, we will look at the main trends in the development of space mining, who is involved in it, and what to expect in the coming years.
Participants in the race for the championship
Over the past decade, many companies and government agencies have emerged that seek leadership in asteroid mining. First of all, these are NASA (USA), ESA (European Space Agency), JAXA (Japan) and well-known private organizations. Some of them have already gained a lot of popularity, such as Blue Origin and SpaceX, which are actively investing in large-scale projects, mainly related to rocketry and transportation. However, there are also highly specialized firms that were literally “born” for the sake of the idea of researching and commercializing small celestial bodies. Among them, the most famous are Deep Space Industries and AstroForge. The latter is an exemplary example of a modern view of space mining: an American startup that has been focused on expeditions to mine and process platinum metals from the very beginning. In 2023, the company launched its first demonstration mission, Brokkr-1, as part of the SpaceX Rideshare program, to test the possibility of refining resources in microgravity. Although the mission did not achieve all the planned goals, it provided valuable lessons and experience that became the basis for the next mission. Next, AstroForge plans to send small, automated vehicles to near-Earth asteroids* to collect samples and test real-world rare metal reserves. This time, one of these asteroids, 2022 OB5, will be the object of study. The company’s main goal is to develop fully autonomous mining and processing systems in outer space, which will help to significantly reduce the cost of delivering minerals to Earth. This initiative demonstrates the growing interest of the private sector and demonstrates how innovative approaches can dramatically change the industrial horizons of humanity.
*Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) are asteroids whose orbits intersect or are close to the Earth’s orbit.
The demand for scarce metals and virtually unlimited reserves of raw materials in space is the engine that drives more and more companies to invest in such projects. Experts are already talking about the formation of a large-scale space economy that could exceed a number of high-tech industries on our planet.
Current status and prospects
At present, asteroid mining has not yet entered the industrial phase, but the first very real steps are already visible. Many space startups are attracting significant capital from powerful investors and technology corporations. And their plans include the creation of a full-scale infrastructure for interplanetary mining and processing. Engineers and scientists are actively working on robotic stations designed to drill and process material in microgravity, as well as on systems for transporting the mined material to storage or processing facilities.
In turn, space law is still being formed, and the question of who will own the resources extracted remains open. Discussions are centered on property rights, taxation, and the prevention of a possible “gold rush” beyond Earth.
According to analysts, over the next twenty years, it will be possible to obtain the first industrial products from asteroids and deploy space-based industries. In addition to metals, the extraction of water from icy objects is also promising: it will allow the organization of gas stations in space, as water can be broken down into hydrogen and oxygen for further use as fuel.
Several interesting projects are already in the works that could radically change humanity’s approach to space exploration:
NASA Psyche Mission. The mission to the metal-rich asteroid Psyche is designed to find out its origin and features. The Psyche spacecraft has a launch mass of about 2.7 tons. Its payload includes a multispectral camera, a gamma-ray and neutron spectrometer, a magnetometer, and an X-band radio navigation system. The arrival is scheduled for August 2029. The duration of the scientific program is approximately 21 months, from August 2029 to May 2031. The data obtained can become the basis for calculating the economic feasibility of mining iron and other metals.
Odin mission. In February 2025, AstroForge plans to launch the Odin spacecraft to the near-Earth asteroid 2022 OB5. The mission’s goal is to collect data on the asteroid’s composition to prepare for future mining. The launch will be made in the IM-2 mission of Intuitive Machines. The Odin mission will be followed by the Vestri mission, which will aim to land on the asteroid and start mining. AstroForge has also signed a contract with Stoke Space for several launches using the Nova rocket under development for future missions.
The foundation for future achievements
Before analyzing the scale and economic attractiveness of asteroid mining, it is worthwhile to understand the complexity and prospects of such a project based on successful missions and achievements. For clarity, let’s focus on four things:
- Flight time to the target and conditions. On the example of the asteroid Psyche and 2022 OB.
- The cost of launching such a project. Let’s analyze the cost of launching a vehicle into orbit using a Falcon 9.
- Profit. For the analysis, let’s choose the price of iridium as one of the most expensive metals potentially available on asteroids.
- Technical capabilities. Based on the Chang’e-5 resource extraction vehicle: its mass, extraction method, and energy source.
According to NASA’s plans, the Psyche station should arrive at the asteroid of the same name in about 3-4 years after launch. The spacecraft has a launch mass of about 2.7 tons and a payload of four scientific instruments with a total weight of about 30 kg. Psyche is a large asteroid (diameter of about 200-230 km), but its gravity remains low compared to the Earth’s (approximately 0.06-0.07 m/s2). While the low gravity makes it easier to take off and land, it can make it difficult to attach equipment to the surface.
The near-Earth asteroid 2022 OB5 is much closer than Psyche, so the flight time can be significantly shorter (on average, 6 to 15 months there and the same amount of time back). This makes it possible to complete the full mission cycle in 2-3 years. AstroForge is planning a compact probe weighing 100 kilograms. In the first stages, the company will primarily test the capabilities of autonomous drilling and sample collection. Such missions will help assess the economic feasibility of mining iridium and other rare metals on near-Earth asteroids.
The cost of launching into low Earth orbit (LEO) for a Falcon 9 rocket (in a reusable configuration) ranges from $60-70 million per mission. In terms of 1 ton of payload, this is approximately $2.5-3 million. Falcon 9 is capable of launching up to 22-23 tons to LEO. Less weight is available for deep space flights, as part of the rocket’s life is spent on complex maneuvers and high speeds.
Iridium, a platinum metal, is one of the most expensive and rare resources on Earth. It can cost about 4-5 thousand dollars per troy ounce ($130-160 thousand per kilogram). Some asteroids are likely to contain significant concentrations of iridium and other platinum metals. If the reserves are really large, the potential commercial benefits could be high, but the transportation and technological costs are also enormous.
China’s Chang’e-5 mission was designed to automatically collect samples from the lunar surface and return them to Earth. Its launch weight was over 8 tons, and the final payload weight was only 2 kg of lunar soil delivered home. Using a robotic arm and a drill, the spacecraft collected the regolith in a gravity of 1/6 of Earth’s. For asteroids with even lower gravity, other retention and stabilization mechanisms may be required. “Chang’e-5 was powered primarily by solar panels. During long or remote missions to asteroids, nuclear power units (e.g., radioisotope thermoelectric generators) may also be used.
How to build autonomous resource extraction on an asteroid
Drilling. In some cases, asteroids, especially those that have survived many impacts (and have no atmosphere to cushion them), may have exposed areas of crust or iron-nickel core. As a result, deeper layers (with a high metal content) can be exposed almost to the surface after impacts or destruction of the regolith layer.
If an asteroid is a fragment of the nucleus of a larger celestial body, the concentration of platinum metals (in particular, iridium) in the upper layer may be higher than in relatively undifferentiated rocky ones (S-type asteroids).
Many asteroids have a layer of loose regolith, sometimes not deep at all. Iridium (in combination with other metals) may well occur in the regolith, especially if the asteroid has been frequently micrometeoritized and the surface layers have been mixed.
Refueling. Asteroids contain several materials that can be used to produce fuel, especially in the context of space missions. Many asteroids, primarily carbonaceous (C-type) asteroids, have significant deposits of water ice. Water can be decomposed by electrolysis into hydrogen and oxygen, the components of efficient rocket fuel. Production of fuel directly in space from extracted water can significantly reduce the cost of interplanetary missions.
Splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. This is a classic combination for rocket engines. Water is decomposed by electrolysis: an electric current is passed through to produce gaseous hydrogen and oxygen. They are then liquefied (at very low temperatures) and used as fuel components.
The following basic conditions and equipment are required for the electrolysis of water (production of hydrogen and oxygen):
- A source of direct electric current. A stable and sufficiently powerful DC power supply is required. The higher the current, the faster the electrolysis, but the more the system heats up and the higher the energy costs. Proper cooling or thermal management must be provided.
- Electrolyte and aqueous solution. Pure water conducts almost no current on its own, so an electrolyte is usually added to increase the conductivity. In PEM electrolysis (proton exchange membrane), very pure water without impurities is used, because the membrane itself acts as an electrolyte. It is important to control the pH, temperature, and purity of the water.
- Electrolytic cell (reactor). A system of many cells in a hermetically sealed housing made of a suitable polymer, with an electrolyte supply and gas exhaust. The system includes a cooling/heating system, circulation pumps, pressure and gas composition sensors, and control automation.
- Gas collection and storage system. During electrolysis, hydrogen (at the cathode) and oxygen (at the anode) are produced. Special gas separators and separators are needed to separate hydrogen and oxygen. And cryogenic facilities are used for storage.
To obtain liquid hydrogen and oxygen from a gaseous mixture, cryogenic treatment is used. Before liquefaction, moisture, carbon dioxide, and any other impurities must be removed as much as possible. Typically, gas is first compressed to a high pressure (tens to hundreds of bar) for liquefaction. In most industrial systems, the gas is first cooled to temperatures close to the boiling point of liquid nitrogen (~77 K at atmospheric pressure) or a multi-stage system is used. Special regenerative or recuperative heat exchangers enable efficient transfer of cold from the already cooled stream to the heated stream.
After preliminary cooling, the gas enters the system, where it is cooled even more. An effective method is to use a turbo expander, in which the gas expands to rotate a turbine and thus releases energy while being cooled. Finally, part of the gas condenses, collecting as a liquid in a cryogenic tank or separator. Liquid hydrogen and oxygen are stored in cryogenic tanks with double walls, vacuum insulation, and reflective screens.
Liquefied hydrogen (LH2) and oxygen (LOX) can be used as components of rocket fuel. This pair is considered one of the most efficient. The Sabatier reaction is a classic, highly efficient cycle for creating rocket fuel, used in both main and upper stages of rockets.
Another option is to use carbon compounds. Carbonaceous (C-type) asteroids are rich in organic matter and carbon compounds that can be converted into various types of fuel. Thermal and catalytic methods are suitable for this purpose. If methane is to be produced from heavy carbon compounds or CO/CO2, there are two main technologies: methanation and the Sabatier reaction. In the first case, the synthesis gas is passed through a catalytic reactor (usually a nickel catalyst) at 300-450 °C and elevated pressure. In the second variant, hydrogen must first be produced and a source of CO2 must be available. This technology is used in space projects (e.g., Mars ISRU) to convert CO2 (from the Mars atmosphere) into methane used in rocket fuel (SpaceX Starship). But this requires powerful plants and sophisticated equipment. The thermal approach allows solid carbon feedstock to be processed at high temperatures. It is suitable for large volumes, but requires sophisticated equipment (gasifier, purification systems, catalytic reactor) and high energy consumption, which can be difficult to implement in space mining, for example, powered by solar panels.
We have made our rough estimate of how much hydrogen fuel an Odin-type vehicle would need to lift 2 kg of mined resources from a Psyche-type asteroid, similar to Chang’e-5. We also estimated the energy consumption and the total cost of such a mission based on existing workable technologies.
Knowing the asteroid’s radius of 1.1 × 10^5 m, mass of 2.72 × 10^19 kg, and gravitational parameter, we can calculate the circular orbital velocity at the surface, first and second space velocity. Taking a small margin for losses during takeoff, we assume ΔV=250 m/s as the speed required to reach orbit. Then we apply the Tsiolkovsky equation. Substituting a dry mass of 100 kg, the specific impulse in vacuum, and ΔV, we get 7 kg of propellant. Such small numbers are explained by the fact that Psyche’s gravity is insignificant, and a relatively small ΔV is required to enter its orbit (compared to, for example, the Moon or Mars).
Generation. Now we need to get a certain amount of energy to produce 7 kg of hydrogen fuel. An industrial electrolysis plant operates with an efficiency of about 60-80%, so the actual consumption is usually 50-60 kWh per 1 kg of hydrogen. As a result, we need 350 kWh. A 10-m2 solar panel can generate about 2 kW when operating continuously (24/7). Thus, in 7 days of continuous generation, we can get the required amount of energy.
Storing this amount of energy is not an easy task: a 350 kWh battery capable of continuously delivering 50 kW, using modern lithium-ion technology, will weigh about 1.5-2.5 tons but have a small volume of several cubic meters. However, the delivery of such a cargo will be a challenge.
So how much does it cost to start mining asteroids? Calculating costs and payback
For a small demonstration complex (panels, electrolyzer, robot “platform”), the total cost of development and launch may well exceed $200-300 million (and sometimes the bill can go up to a billion, if all risks and reserves are taken into account). This is only a basic installation, without large-scale production. If a full-fledged “mine” with large volumes of rock processing, sorting, and chemical reactors is planned, the amounts increase many times over (several billion).
NASA’s Psyche project (launch in 2023) was estimated at about $1 billion just to build the probe + Falcon Heavy rocket (~100-150 million). But that probe does not return to Earth. If a return flight (samples, cargo) is also required, additional engine blocks, fuel, heat protection, etc. will be needed. This can increase the budget by 1.5-2 times or more. Thus, a round trip (two or three rocket stages, space tug, lander, sample return) with a full development and launch life cycle for complex purposes could cost $1-2 billion (less in a very optimistic scenario, if a reusable Starship is used, etc.). But for conservative missions, the cost often exceeds 2-3 billion.
Let’s assume that it is necessary:
- $1 billion for development,
- $2 billion for launch/delivery/return (including the cost of all logistics),
- $0.3 billion for the production station and its operation/maintenance, etc.
The total will be $3.3 billion. If you sell iridium at $150,000 per 1 kg, you will need to pay back $3.3 billion:
3,300,000,000 USD / 150,000 USD/kg = 22,000 kg = 22 tons of iridium.
This is just a “zero” calculation, without taking into account investment attractiveness, profits, a decrease in value due to the appearance of a large number of goods on the market, etc.
Time distribution
- In 10 years (to “pay off” 3.3 billion without interest), it will take about 2.3 tons per year.
- Over 25 years – about 0.92 tons per year.
- Over 50 years – about 0.46 tons per year.
Given the existing examples of delivering a 2 kg cargo to Earth from the Moon, we can calculate that even to pay for it in 50 years, 460 kg / 2 kg = 230 missions per year would be required. Of course, the cost of developing a unique mission and a “serial” mission is different, and we should also take into account that the base needs to be built only once. Therefore, in an optimistic scenario, the price of 1 delivery round will be estimated at the cost of launching the carrier (using the Falcon 9 as an example, $60-70 million => $2.5-3 million per ton) and servicing the spacecraft.
Let’s apply the following conditions:
- $3 million for the launch of 1 tonne of the vehicle.
- $2 million for its maintenance.
$5,000,000 / 150,000 USD/kg = 34 kg, +2 kg to fulfill the return on investment.
With the infrastructure in place, at least 36 kg of iridium must be delivered to the asteroid at a time to break even (which is 18 times the current record).
Given the huge upfront investment, risks, technological complexity, and uncertainty about metal prices, real space mining missions are still at the level of concepts or small demonstration projects. But with the reduction of launch costs and the development of robotics in space, the situation may become more attractive in the future.
Thus, the realities of space mining in space demonstrate how difficult and costly it is to turn theoretical benefits into real profits. Even extracting a few kilograms of iridium, worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, requires multimillion-dollar investments in technology development, rocket launches, the creation of autonomous power modules, and resource processing in the harsh conditions of microgravity. To build a full-fledged “space base” or large-scale production outside the Earth, an even more developed infrastructure is needed, which is currently in its infancy.
And yet, we are on the verge of a new era in space exploration. If lunar and Martian programs are already part of the global agenda, then the prospect of mining on asteroids is the next logical step. The success of the first demonstration missions will give impetus to further reduce the cost of launches, develop adapted robotic systems, and ultimately commercialize space resources. Today we are witnessing an important stage when the exploration of the Moon and Mars has not yet been completed, and the next ambitious goal – full-fledged resource extraction on asteroids – is getting closer.
