Ukraine is currently experiencing an incredible heat wave. It has caused controversy over whether this is a common phenomenon or whether the climate is really changing compared to pre-industrial levels. Experts at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center know the answer to this question.
Heat wave in Ukraine
For several weeks now, Ukraine has been experiencing an unprecedented heat wave. However, not only in Ukraine and not only in the last few weeks. Since last June, every month on planet Earth has been a record-breaking one in terms of average temperature. And this has sparked a renewed debate about whether the climate is changing or not.
This is a complicated topic because people usually judge the state of the climate by their own feelings over a short period of time and in a particular place. However, meteorologists realized a long time ago that this way is wrong. Someone is sitting in Ukraine and it’s +40, someone is in London and it’s +20, someone has air conditioning, and someone is in Antarctica and it’s a polar night there.
That is why scientists, first, rely exclusively on instrument readings, and second, calculate average values over a day, month, or year for a particular area or the entire Earth. Third, when it comes to drawing conclusions about changes, they always compare the results with what was observed some time ago.
Was there such a heat wave in Shevchenko’s time?
Usually, when people talk about climate change, they compare current average temperatures with pre-industrial levels. For example, with the nineteenth century, when Taras Shevchenko lived. And this approach is even understandable from an everyday point of view. But did it really happen to be so hot in those days?
However, the average temperature over a day or month is not a very intuitive indicator. That’s why scientists, including those from the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, use another one: the climate change index.
This value shows how much more frequent a certain temperature has become in a given month compared to pre-industrial levels. Of course, even in the time of Taras Shevchenko, it happened to be +34°C in June in Ukraine, but not so often. This is exactly what the climate change index corresponds to.
The climate change index
Specifically for the middle of July 2024, for most of Ukraine, this index is 4-5, with only a few places being lower. That is, it is exactly the same number of times as the heat like this was less common in Shevchenko’s time.
It is also clear from the published data that we are not talking about abnormal cold, as in some parts of Europe. After all, the average daily temperature in Ukraine during this period was 8-14 degrees higher than in pre-industrial times. Ukrainian meteorologists draw an unequivocal conclusion from this that climate change is happening.
Based on the materials: www.facebook.com/UkrHMC
